Findings of predictive modelling research on the osteopathic sector have been published
25 September 2024
Middlesex University were independently commissioned in 2023 to look at GOsC’s registration data and explore through predictive modelling what the osteopathic profession might look like in 3-5 years’ time.
Exploring what the osteopathic sector might look like in the future allows GOsC, together with key partners to cautiously consider what this might mean in terms of planning for the future, for the delivery osteopathic education, workforce planning, for the profession and for patients, recognising that forecasts may be different to actual results.
The predictive modelling is based on an innovative algorithm which looks to recreate cyclical patterns seen in existing/historical data such as student numbers entering to study osteopathy and the numbers of osteopaths joining and leaving the GOsC register. Using the data, attempts can be made to predict what might happen in the future, predominantly in a set of worst-case scenarios.
How do the predictive modelling results compare to the current data we hold?
The data in this report beyond 2023 is by no means fact and does not automatically mean that this will happen within the osteopathic sector, and currently, our registration data for 2023-24 is showing positive differences to the predicted algorithm and registration numbers are up in comparison to this report.
These differences may mean that the model forecasts may happen much later on than is predicted, or not at all. Alternatively, in light of the differences in data, it would be worth considering collectively what might be working well within the sector for this to be the case currently.
What did the research predict?
The predictive modelling of the osteopathic profession for 2027-28, indicates:
- A decreasing number of students enrolled on an osteopathic course across all year groups (856).
- A high variation in the number of osteopaths joining the register, but with a negative trend (110).
- An increasing number of osteopaths leaving the register (290).
- Taking all these estimations together, a predicted new sample size of 4,966.
- An increase in age increases the probability of an osteopath leaving the register.
- Results from the scenario analysis suggest that in the worst-case scenario (>66%), the expected number of registrants leaving the register is 1097 out of which 450 are females and 630 males, with a median age of 66 years old.
- The registrants who are more likely to leave the register have been on the register between 6 and 15 years.
- Brexit is the only external factor likely to have a significant negative impact.
About the methodology used (the technical stuff)
The predictive modelling was built using a range of statistical testing – linear regression model (Ordinary Least Squares), trees decisions, propensity score matching, and Logit model. The modelling took into consideration external factors and assumptions that osteopathic stakeholders thought might affect ‘best’ or ‘worst’ case scenarios.
GOsC Chief Executive and Registrar, Matthew Redford said: ‘We thank Middlesex University for their report which provides another helpful data source to inform the collective thinking of the osteopathic sector on important areas such as workforce planning.’
What are the GOsC doing in response to these research findings?
In response to these research findings, we have:
1. Commissioned NCOR to undertake three core research projects in the following areas:
- Student enablers and barriers to studying or completing an osteopathy course.
- Qualitative exploration into the reasons osteopaths choose to leave the GOsC register.
- Evaluation of osteopaths’ resignations from the GOsC register.
2. Undertaken some specific research on newly qualified osteopaths transition into practice.
We will continue, with our key partners to monitor and report on the reliability of the algorithm generated data in this research report with Realtime/ actual data.
